The Afghan War, Opium and the DJIA-2009 Chart

In 2003, I started making this chart after a conversation my husband and I had about the fall of the stock market and the odd coincidence with the Opium drug trade being stopped in Afghanistan under the Taliban just before 9-11. We did it as a joke, one of those 'wonder what would happen if..." kind of things late at night bored with a computer in front of us. So we went to the US State department website and pulled the figures back to 1993 then plotted them along with the Dow Jones Industrial average from the last trading day of each year.

The results stunned us, but we thought, well, it must just be a coincidence...

So in about 2004, I sent the chart to my Senator and asked "What do you think about this? Is there anything to it?" Not only didn't I get a reply, but the State Department immediately pulled their drug estimates on Afghanistan opium production from their website. We had to start going to the UNODC which had similar figures and was still posting them to get the information.

In 2005, I started writing a blog.

In 2006, I first got the nerve to post 3 years of collecting data on my blog.

In 2007, I posted the updated figures only to have the chart "disappear" from my blog and have to repost it. That year there was also a story on the news about the new "epidemic" of heroin in the suburbs of Milwaukee that blamed it all essentially on a black guy who was the contact (not the war, not the huge increase in supply, but one black guy...).

In 2008, I posted again noting "The 2008 figures in particular are a bit stunning not just for the fact that the drop in the DJIA is significantly more than the drop in the Afghan opium projected figures."

I wrote a piece a few weeks back about this as well. Read through it. It's got a lot of new information. Interesting to note that one of my readers was a bit skeptical about the role of corruption in the Afghan government. Hmmmm.....

And so here it is, the Afghan Opium production charted with the DJIA annually since 1993.

Clearly, 2008 is a BIG change in the general trend of the chart...an anamoly. Considering that December 2008 was the height of the worldwide financial crash and the market was in a panic independent of rationality, we could draw a line from 2007 to 2009 and you'd see the trend is still pretty accurate. Instead I've added a log line to the chart so you can see the trend mathmatically.

Think we've been way off base and are grasping at straws (or should I say poppies)? This article in The Guardian titled Drug Money Saved Banks in Global Crisis Claims UN Advisor was the first I've found that out and out finally recognizes that the banks are laundering the drug money and the result is that it now directly affects our financial markets worldwide. It's interesting to note that the British government was in control of the worldwide opium market for a hundred years (google Opium Wars).

The winter report is out as well and as predicted, the supply is so huge and stockpiles so large that prices are falling. No surprise there, the basic economic of supply and demand...

So what IS the objective in Afghanistan Mr. Obama? We'd all like to know.

(Note this chart is hard to read on this page, but if you click on it, you'll get a much more readable copy. I will also email it to you with all the sourcing if you send me your email address.

Notes on the data presented:

^ http://www.state.gov/g/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2002/html/17947.htm -- Information was found at this web address. All US information has been removed from the US Dept of State website with no explanation and I did not save the original reports (something I've corrected withthe UN report now included in the figures).

*Potential Yield estimate from the U.S. White House; UN estimate is approx. 3,600 metric tons

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/28/afghanistan.drugs.reut/index.html

**Potential Yield estimate of production thru Sept 2002 based on the 2002 number divided by two for charting purposes

***Close last trading day of December annually unless otherwise** noted

~http://www.unodc.org/pdf/afghanistan_2005/annex_opium-afghanistan-2005-09-09.pdf

87% of the world's opium production in 2004 and 2005 came from Afghanistan eradication efforts led to an estimated 5% reduction in opium production from 2004 to 2005, but the reason for lower amounts of final product are believed to be on the processing and crow yield side more than the growth side of production.

http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html#afg

2006 figures so far are estimated to be at or above the levels in 2006 depending on whether or not any eradication efforts are carried out or successful (coincidentally, the stock market is also expected to rise during the year). http://www.unodc.org/pdf/research/Afg_RAS_2006.pdf

New estimate is that over 90% of the world's opium production came from Afghanistan

http://www.unodc.org/pdf/research/AFG05%20_full_web_2006.pdf

http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2009_summary.pdf

Why the Roberts Decision Yesterday Was Correct (even if it sucks)

Th panic over the Supreme Court decision yesterday granting full free speech rights to corporations was the correct decision for them to make no matter how much it sucks...

On a true free speech level, and considering current laws and precedents, the ruling is actually more consistent with the constitution and the decision of 1844 when corporations were declared equal to 'persons' having nearly the same constitutional rights.

People are getting upset with the WRONG point of the decision.

Over the years, the courts have expanded on that decision of corporate citizenship in a consistent manner perhaps more than any other ruling of the court in its history.

The court just expanded that ruling further yesterday and it's not inconsistent with the constitution if you let the 1844 ruling stand.

The problem isn't yesterday's decision, it's one made over 150 years ago!

That's where the fix belongs and anything else is just a stop gap until the corporate personage ruling is stripped via constitutional amendment.

We can complain and argue all we want. Under current constitutional law, a corporation equals a human being when it comes to constitutional protections and that's where the core problem lies.

From Wikipedia today: Since the 1800s, legal personhood has been further construed to make it a citizen, resident, or domiciliary of a state (usually for purposes of personal jurisdiction). In Louisville, C. & C.R. Co. v. Letson, 2 How. 497, 558, 11 L.Ed. 353 (1844), the U.S. Supreme Court held that for the purposes of the case at hand, a corporation is “capable of being treated as a citizen of [the State which created it], as much as a natural person.” Ten years later, they reaffirmed the result of Letson, though on the somewhat different theory that “those who use the corporate name, and exercise the faculties conferred by it,” should be presumed conclusively to be citizens of the corporation's State of incorporation. Marshall v. Baltimore & Ohio R. Co., 16 How. 314, 329, 14 L.Ed. 953 (1854).

If you don't like it, here's a suggested fix that will take 2/3rd's votes in both Houses of Congress and adoption by 3/4's of the state legislatures... I'm not necessarily advocating for this, the cost could be terrible, but it's really the only solution for those of you who are freaking out right now ;).

"Corporations are entities licensed by Federal, State and Local Governments and not personages equal to the same constitutional rights of a human being, but subject to the laws, regulations and controls government entities pass in conjunction with the privilege of a corporate charter."

Anyone up for the battle of a lifetime?

As for the conversation (argument?) it sparked, we are US citizens who do have the right to vote (well except for the 5.3 million currently barred under the antiquated Jim Crow statutes of felon disfranchisement) and making excuses that we are all too stupid to see through the b.s. of the corporations is pretty ridiculous and cynical.

I WANT the corporate logos on the candidates' commercials and pins on their lapels, and sponsorship notices as PUBLIC as they can be so I can be BETTER informed as to who's bankrolling them!

You think if Ben Nelson had written all over his campaign "This candidate brought to you by United Healthcare" the DNC would have bothered to spend a dime on his election?

You think if his primary opponent had "This candidate brought to you by Citizens for Universal Healthcare (made that up ;)" the voters could have made an INFORMED choice about who they were casting their ballot for?

I think the problem with our elections is not that corporations are bankrolling candidates. THEY ARE ALREADY. They just do it now through nebulous groups like the Tea Partiers and the Swift Boaters. "The problem is that we DON'T KNOW what corporations are bankrolling who!

MORE SPEECH IS ALWAYS BETTER!

I say bring it out in the open. I WANNA KNOW!

Surprised by the Surprise: Obama and the Afghan War

I guess I'm the only person in America who's not surprised that President Obama (still love typing that) is going to continue the war in Afghanistan. I feel like the only person who actually listened to him during his campaign in 2008...

I am surprised that we are still in Iraq. I'm surprised that Guantanamo is still not closed. I'm surprised that Don't Ask Don't Tell is still getting people fired in the military.

I am NOT surprised we are going to send more troops into Afghanistan. Not only that as a peacenik Obama supporter, I'm conflicted in my own right as to whether or not this is a good idea.

Keith Olbermann seems stunned and furious tonight and made a great case for Obama changing his mind now. Others are sort of reporting it as if it's a new war. Peace networks are getting ready to hit the streets. All of those are valid reactions to this new escalation of the war in Afghanistan.

What does not surprise me is that we are escalating in Afghanistan and I have two reasons that it could be a less horrible disaster than the liberal peace community (of which I'm a proud life long member) is about to make a really good case for...

First, why am I not surprised? It's pretty simple actually. I listened to almost every campaign speech I could in 2008 by Obama. He must have said on a daily basis for a year something on the line of 'We are fighting the wrong war. We need to get out of Iraq and go back to Afghanistan and finish the job there including catching Osama Bin Laden.' I bet you could find a version of that phrase in almost every speech on the campaign trial... I heard it and voted for President Obama anyway. Apparently others went "la la la la la" every time he said it.

This escalation is a campaign promise pure and simple.

So I'll let the rest of the world argue about and make a fantastic case for all the reasons we shouldn't go back into Afghanistan (as Obama promised us before we voted for him, that he would).

Here are two (the only two I can think of) good ones to just trust Obama as the man we elected to make this decision: opium and real peace

Many of you have followed over the years my posts on the Afghanistan opium and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition I started tracking heroin abuse in the US over the past few years. What I've found is astounding in the least and I encourage you to not only watch for the post again in January this year, but to also Google and find my previous work on this issue.

The part of that project that really bothers me is that the Taliban stopped opium production in its tracks in 2001. Around 700 mt came out of the country that year under Taliban rule. Since then the amount of opium poppy produced in Afghanistan has increased nearly 1000% to around 7000 mt!

The world only consumes about 5000 mt with the average addiction levels. Afghanistan doesn't produce all the opium that's produced world wide. We've seen a proportional increase in addiction levels in the US as the price has plunged due to overwhelming supply, and in search of new markets, the dealers have moved it into the suburbs... Teenage children in the US are dying of heroin addiction now more than ever in history. It's every where. It's cheap and it's easier to get than a bottle of beer or a cigarette. I KNEW some of these children. Lives cut short before they are even of age due to a war being lost for the last 7 years thousands of miles away from the place they first put that needle in their arm...

Still, the world is not consuming the enormous supply that is coming out of Afghanistan to the point where now the UNODC is now saying that about 2000 mt are being STORED around the world annually... Think about that. The UN Office of Drug Control knows that heroin is being stored somewhere in the world, and how much, but doesn't know where??? Apparently it also keeps really well. Nice feature for the drug dealers huh? This means that even the worst case scenario for the drug dealers is that Afghan production is stopped all together again and yet, they will have at least a year of heroin for ALL the drug addicts in the entire world stored up to continue the trade.

Every year, that stock pile gets bigger. The President of Afghanistan's brother is reported to be the most powerful opium dealer in the country. The president himself basically appointed by the Bush Administration is barely legitimate with two questionable elections this year is perilously close to a dictator.

Real peace in Afghanistan is a pipe dream right now. Literally centuries of war and hostile occupation has left that country devastated.

I could be convinced though that if the mission outlined tomorrow is not to fight a war, but to restore the country not to the current leadership or the war lords or the drug cartels, but to the everyday people of that country, and to stop the production of opium and replace it with other more profitable crops, it might be a legitimate effort.

To teach them how to take control, rid the fields of opium, and then leave in a very deliberate and highly outlined way is really the ONLY way the mission is worth it.

Our children deserve a world not flooded with low priced easy to get heroin.

The Afghan people deserve a chance to restore their own country as they see fit without the influence of corrupt leaders and superpowers who don't understand the history of struggle they've suffered.

If President Obama outlines a very narrow short term mission with two goals, to restore legitimate rule to the people and rid the country of opium production, only then could I see this mission being valuable. If he comes out tomorrow night sounding like a Bush Admin official, I don't care what this has to do with a campaign promise, he's going to have me marching in the streets in protest of this expensive, and deadly conflict.

We can only hope at this point that he gets this right. Too much is at stake.

Note I have the hard data on all of this if anyone wants it, let me know or go to the UNODC website....

Updates on the Fight at the Tea Pary Rally in Milwaukee Today

I posted this blog earlier today and more information has come in, so I want to make sure I keep the facts current.

The blog is my first hand experience at a Tea Bagger Rally on Milwaukee's lakefront today. It's a bit disjointed and more information has come in since I wrote the original post (in the heat of the moment) so I want to relay what's come in since and clarify my comments so far.

I want to start by reiterating my belief that the man was in danger by a large group of angry people. I don't know why, I just know that he was being followed by an angry mob. I still don't know the circumstances prior to the portion I saw. All I know is what I actually saw. Other eyewitness accounts are coming in and I'm not sure what happened before the part I reported on.

I also missed Joe the Plumber's actual involvement in it all and I said that in the original blog. I really don't know personally because I didn't see it, but I suspect from the people who've posted on my blog that he may have been trying to calm down the people attacking the guy.

Unfortunately I missed that part of it and only saw him in the middle of the crowd as previously stated.

One commentor on my blog stated: Joe the Plumber joined in and he WAS BREAKING UP THE SQUABBLE! He had a booth set up and when he saw what was happening he got between the squabbling. So don't slur him. He said to me, "we don't need this." I agree.

This suggests JTPe may have seen the portion of this that I saw and was not happy with the way it looked... similar to my reaction. I suspect more on this story will come out today.

I strongly suggest you read ALL the comments and take my perspective into account as it's accurate to what I saw and experienced, but may not tell the entire story since I freely admitted in the post that I didn't see everything.

I want in particular to discuss the free speech issue. No one from government was quelling free speech today and I'm not saying they should have. The people at this rally had every right to say what they thought, and by God, they took full advantage of that right LOL! I would defend their right to speak and would be the first to say something if their right to speak was infringed on by the government. Anyone can make a comment about anything they want as long as they don't explicitly say, "attack that guy" and a group of people attack that guy.

My question goes to responsibility for your speech and this is a careful line to draw. Just because you have the right to say something, should you say it? That's a moral question that each individual in a free society should make. My questions in the previous blog go to that point.

Vicki McKenna's comments today were horrifying. She called for a "revolution", called the crowd the "people's mob" and said

"When someone says bigot, say thank you when someone says nazi laugh,"

actually I think in both cases she said "calls you a" but was trying to get it posted on my FB account so I didn't forget the gist of it...

This was clearly an irresponsible speech that she had every right to give. Shortly thereafter the scuffle ensued. Is there a cause and effect here? I don't know. I only asked the question.

Is the rhetoric around this anti-government movement out of hand? Again, asking the question. What's really important here isn't whether or not I feel it is out of hand, but if the people using this rhetoric are ready to take responsibility for the results of it whatever those results.

Here's some video that basically confirms the portion of my story after came back from getting the sheriffs. It certainly confirms JTP's involvement in some way. It confirms the mood of the crowd (even the guy videotaping is flipping out and justifying the attack on the guy). It also confirms in particular that walking into that group of people (I was near the guy videotapping and he also missed the take down...) and hearing the anger and the horror at the applause when the guy lifted his head and was his face was full of blood would have scared just about anyone rational. That justifies my own horror with the entire incident.

More video apparently exists that could show why the mob was angry and I'll withhold judgement on that until after I see it. I also suspect it will confirm the first half of my story even if the first half of my story may have been the middle of the whole story.

Most importantly, I want to reiterate that I wrote the story as I personally saw it. I was careful to leave out what I didn't see and point out what I didn't know.

I do know that the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel was able to confirm that there was a fight. Much more will come out around this. I suspect the angry mob will try to justify their behavior in attacking the guy. He was an angry liberal crashing their party after all.

I was terrified by it all. I was appalled at the outcome. I saw the look in the guy's eyes as he realized that the people around him were way outnumbering him, not letting him walk and pushing and surrounding him. This was ugly no matter the final story.

The bottom line is that the guy was pretty spotable with his fuscia backpack. If, as some people are stating, he was out of line, they had one duty and one duty only, to get the police or sheriffs involved. That's what I did. My husband against his better judgement did not try to step in and break it up, but waiting for the authorities to get involved. This is what rational people do. They get professionals only a few feet away, not form an angry mob and attack someone.

I will have more to say on this, but I wanted to make sure I keep my readers up to date on the latest developments. Lots of other bloggers are linking to my original post and I suggest you read their posts on both sides of the story.

Just know that my original report of what I saw is accurate to my perspective as a truly independent and interested observer at the rally. I was not there to cause trouble. I did not and do not know the guy involved in the incident. I was there out of honest curiousity about it all and my opinions on it are my own.

Anti-Govt Rally Masked as Anti-Healthcare Rally in Milwaukee Turns Violent

I'm sorry I don't have pictures... If anyone who had a camera can post them, please do. My husband and I were going for a drive on the lakefront in Milwaukee and went by an anti-gov't/anti-healthcare rally with about 300-500 people at Veteran's Park.

We decided to double back and go into the parking lot behind the rally and just go quietly watch and check out what was going on. A woman I didn't recognize was on the podium as we approached the rally. The average age seemed to be above 40 and except for one black couple and a black family with 15 children (one of them holding a sign that said something like "We drink juice, not kool aid") it was all white.

Here are my actual Facebook status updates as we walked into the rally:

When someone says bigot, say thank you when someone says nazi laugh, that's an actual quote from the podium at the anti- govt rally at Vets Park.

Th They are calling themselves "the people's mob"

Joe the plummer just gott in a fight and they guy the mob attacked is getting arrested... (here I have to say, I'm unclear as to Joe's role just that he was in the mob)

He had 30 guys surrounbding him and attacking him and HE just got arrested! Blood around his face

The tussle's over...

That poor guy was walking away being chased by an angry mob who was surrounding him, pulling on him, at what point did he have a right to defend himself from 30 people attacking him?

This was SCARY, these people on the lakefront today were being told, this is a revolution, being told they were the people's mob? At what point do the speakers at this rally have some responsiblity for inciting violence? This is an honest question.

I was shocked and sorry for the typos, but here's the full account of what happened.

A woman at the podium was making the statements (exact words above) I was posting as I wandered into the rally. We were on the north entrance and as I was typing her words, I hear a commotion. I looked up and saw an angry mob of angry white men chasing an older white man with a backpack. He was yelling "I have a right to free speech too." The crowd was yelling, "You should die. You're not an American., etc..." They started grabbing at him as he kept trying to leave the event. The crowd was growing (eventually to about 30 people) and the man clearly scared and angry and being grabbed, pushed and surrounded to impede his attempts to escape, I believed was in imminent danger. He was shouting back at them and attempting to defend himself from the crowd and the sheriffs about 300 yards away couldn't see what was going on because of the vendor booths in their way. I made a decision and ran to get the sheriffs.

The man traveled about 300 yards attempting to escape the growing crowd. The crowd was riled up and screaming en masse, continuing to chase the man down, stop his movement, push and pull on his and in general attack the guy.

Then Joe the Plumber joined the tussle. I kid you not. I have no idea his role in it, just that he was IN THE MIDDLE of the crowd. The sheriffs get there, I turn to look at Joe the Plumber and the next thing I know the guy being assaulted by the crowd is bloody on the ground under the knee of two sheriffs and being cuffed. His face was bloody, there was something about a broken camera and I became scared of the crowd who were cheering and congratulating the sheriffs for "doing a great job". There was a girl who said something about someone in that crowd punching her. I decided to walk away from it all because honestly, I saw a sign denouncing the org I work for and was afraid I might be spotted by someone who recognized me and become the next target of the crowd. I just wanted to listen to the speakers and tell what I saw, and I'd seen enough.

After it all dispersed, I did make a statement to the sheriffs telling the same story as above. The sheriffs said to me, "Well, that's a different story than the other people just told us." I bet it was...

So, I'm interested in my reader's thoughts on this entire incident. As we've expected this revolutionary movement that has been calling people to revolution, includes gun-toting nut bags, and overall is promoting violence has turned to violence.

Is the discourse out of control?

At what point do we call this violent "revolution" that's embracing bigotry and nazism from the stage out for their actions?

Do you think there's any connection between the call to violence on the stage and the actions minutes later on the ground?

Will this get any media play or be ignored as an anomoly?

Will the rally leaders denounce the violence or applaud it?

Let's see if we can have a civil discourse here.

The Lion Has Died

My sadness is overwhelming. I put this short story on my Facebook update:

RIP Teddy. I remember meeting you on the dock at Hyannisport. You were gracious and paused for a minute to watch our husbands play football on the beach... perhaps provoking a memory... You stopped chatted and then sailed off with your granddaughter in a little tiny boat on the vast ocean. I'll always remember you like that on that day. Thanks for everything!!! And God bless!

It is time for the Senate (and the House) to stop screwing around, pass Medicare for all and be done with it! In fact, it should be called the Edward M Kennedy Medicare for All Act.

Let's get this done!!!!!

Some housekeeping, this means the Senate is now at 59. It also means that Deval Patrick the young brilliant African American Governor of Mass is now quite literally the most powerful man in the world.

My love to his family for all the love they have given this nation over the years so they may get through what must be a devastating time to have gotten him back from the years of self abuse only to lose him when he seemed more powerful, respected and brilliant than ever. It must just be terrible for his family (and yes, I'm crying too...)

God bless.

March for healthcare!